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How to get a positive mathematical expectation of winning?

How to get a positive mathematical expectation of winning?In this article, we will talk about how to get a positive mathematical expectation of winning with the help of mathematic and statistics. Many people don’t believe that the player can gain from the Canadian online casino in the long term, but we can prove the opposite.

The most important thing is to be very strict and disciplined. Following our recommendations will increase your chance of winning dramatically. The internet is full of bonus hunters who are using this strategy.

Believe it or not, players have a real opportunity to get a positive mathematical expectation of winning. How? With the help of bonuses. And the best thing is that you are not breaking any rules. Using this strategy is the reason why most Canadian online casinos have a point in their terms in the condition that says: If the player wins continuously with the help of bonuses, we will exclude him from offers. In the following link, we talk about the best strategies to earn from online casinos.

Best no deposit bonus free spins at online casinos Canada

In this paragraph, we will introduce you to the best Canadian online casino promotions about no deposit bonuses in the form of free spins. You will just need to register in the following casinos to get your free bonus. In the first place, we recommend you the most trusted casino - get your 15 free spins (no deposit bonus) at Fastpay Casino and enjoy super-fast withdrawals. Our second offer is to click here and grab 15 free spins (no deposit bonus) for sign up at Casino4U - enjoy problem-free payouts. The third recommended online casino offer is to go to Instantpay Casino and get 15 free spins without any deposit, just for registration - they will send the winnings instantly. At last but not least is to get 15 free spins casino no deposit bonus at Wildblaster - they will offer perfect customer support and fast payouts.

Find your favourite paragraph:

Getting a positive mathematical expectation

The first thing is to find a bonus offer with wagering requirements of 40x or less. The second essential step is to play on slots with an RTP (return to player percentage) of 97% or higher. Following these two steps will give you an advantage over the casino, but remember, discipline is also a significant factor in this strategy. Believe us, it sounds easy, but around 90% of you will fail, but those of you who succeed will thank us forever.

What is the statistic showing?

The statistic shows that in the end, the casino will always win. WOW, you just said that we could win??? Yeah, that's true, but only 10% of the readers will follow our recommendations strictly for around a month, then half of them will fail in the long run because the casino gives you the passion for betting more and more. Canadian casinos don't care if 5 players out of 100 wins and 95 losses in the long term. In my opinion, the best way to play is to HAVE FUN!!!

How to choose a suitable offer?

Choosing a bonus offer with wagering requirements of 40x and with a deposit of 100 CAD means that the player can’t withdraw the money before he wagers the amount of 4000 CAD. It is not very easy, but choosing a slot in a “Hot mood” with an RTP of 97% can make you the winner in the end. Learn more about selecting a generous slot.

Game selection

In the following examples, we will show you how to act when the bonus offers have wagering requirements of 35x and 40x. In the table, we will show the slots and the RTP on their right side that you will need to check before you start playing. An RTP of 97% means that the slots will payout 97% of the taken money (this will be fulfilled within millions of spins).

Wagering of 35x

Let say we have 100 CAD of bonus money; we need to make bets on 3500 CAD. Which slots will give the player zero mathematical expectation of winning? The one in which we will (statistically) lose 100 CAD during wagering of 3500 CAD. This value corresponds with 2.86% (100/35x wagering = 2.86 + 97.14 = 0). Therefore, all slots with an RTP of more than 97.15% will give us a positive mathematical expectation of winning in an online casino with some wagering requirements of 35x in the bonus.

Best slots with 35x wagering

Logo Game RTP Wagering rating The probability of triggering the bonus feature Fund allocation
main / bonus
Dispersion of winning Winning per 100 CAD wagered
Mega joker
Mega Joker 99% 2.4 - 100% 7.98 1.75
Jackpot 6000
Jackpot 6000 98.86% 2.7 - 100% 5.24 1.72
Blood suckers
Blood Suckers 98% 6.4 0.5%/ 2.1% 52% / 12,1% / 13% / 20,1% 4.16 0.86
Kings of Chicago
Kings of Chicago 97.8% 3.5 0.94% 70% / 17,6% / 10.3% 8.64 0.66
  • Your win depends on the RTP; the higher the RTP, the higher your win. For example, for every 100 CAD wagered at the Mega Joker slot (RTP 99%), the winning will be 1.86 CAD, and in the Blood Suckers slot (RTP 98%), the winning will be 0.86 CAD.
  • But for example, the  Jack Hammer slot has an RTP of 97%, which means that you will lose 0.14 CAD on each spin (statistically). If you want to have a positive mathematical expectation on this slot, wagering requirements of 33x are needed.

Remember that our positive expectation will last while gambling with a bonus; immediately after the bonus is wagered, we return to a negative expectation.

Wagering of 40x

Now it’s time to talk about bonus offers with 40x wagering requirements. We will need to select slots with an RTP of 97.5% (100/40x wagering = 2.5) and higher for such bonus offers. We will give an example with the same depositing money 100 CAD + the bonus 100 CAD = 200 CAD; in this case, the wagered money must be 4000 CAD. Our list of slots will be the following:

Best slots with 40x wagering

Logo Game RTP (return to player percentage) Winning per 100CAD wagered
Mega joker
Mega Joker 99% 1.5
Jackpot 6000
Jackpot 6000 98.86% 1.36
Blood suckers
Blood Suckers 98% 0.5
  • Playing at Mega Joker (99% RTP), the player can win 1.5 CAD for every 100 CAD wagered (Statistically).
  • In Jackpot 6000, with an RTP of 98.86%, the statistical win for 100 CAD wagered will be 1.36 CAD.
  • Blood Suckers with a 98% RTP will be 0.5 CAD.
  • You can get 0.3 CAD per 100CAD wagered by playing in the King of Chicago slot with an RTP of 97.8%.

In conclusion, we can say that with 40x wagering requirements, the player can still get a positive mathematical expectation, but it will be two times less.

Not all games are available for wagering

In slots, 100 % of the bets are counted as wagered. Many Canadian online casinos exclude live games, but only 10% of the bets are calculated if they are available. Nowadays, many casinos exclude slots with high volatility from the available games.

In other words, if you are a professional bonus hunter and gather several bonus offers from different accounts and different online casinos in Canada, it will be a piece of cake to accumulate them in one slot with high volatility and win a significant amount of money. Sooner or later, the slot will trigger a big win. For the slot, there is no difference if you play with your own money or bonus money. This is why casinos exclude slots with high volatility.

Why are there limits for the maximum bet?

Why are there limits for the maximum bet?There is a reason behind this question; every casino is scared of a player that always wins and, even worst, a player who wins without violating the casino rules. This is the reason why they are setting a maximum to the bets while playing with bonus money.

The point is that when you win a significant sum, the casino will always say that you break the rules and will refuse your withdrawals. 5 CAD, but technically you can always bet more. That’s why it is better to read the terms and conditions before you start playing with the bonus money.

Restrictions for countries

Perhaps you've noticed that some Canadian online casinos exclude countries like Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and China from the bonus offers. Why is that so? Simple:

It's all because of the standard of life. It is not a problem for players in these countries to spend a day, even two, playing and winning around 100 CAD. These kinds of players win in 80-90 % of their gaming sessions, and the casinos don't have any other decisions to solve the problem, so the only way out is exclusion.

Our strategy for getting a positive mathematical expectation with the help of bonuses is so good that the casinos must act somehow to stay open; such a move is a restriction. After such a step, we can conclude that our strategy works perfectly; otherwise, the casino owners would think of something else, no restrictions.


In the section “How to win?” we have written about the best strategies for winning online casinos.

If you combine some of them with the one we talk about in this article, your chances of winning from the casino will be significantly higher.


Let’s summarize everything and conclude how to get a positive mathematical expectation of winning from a Canadian online casino:

  • If the bonus offer is with 35x wagering requirements, choose a slot with an RTP of 97.15% and higher.
  • For getting a positive mathematical expectation from a bonus offer with 40x, the selected slots should have 97.5% RTP or higher.
  • Reloaded and personal bonuses are best for getting positive expectations because they have reduced requirements.
  • Remember that after the bonus is wagered, the positive mathematical expectation turns negative.

Where to play?

Check a list of TOP Canadian online casinos 2021

Written by Kamen Valev
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