Hypothesis Of Big Online Casino Fake
For sure, most of you have already heard something about the Random Number Generator, such notions like RTP, dispersion, and slot's pool. Most players have already heard of various hypotheses about slots "reset to zero" at the beginning of the month, about the fact that you can check slots for return rate while playing demo games and millions of other hypotheses.
But are these theories actually the same as presented to us? No, and in my opinion, it's nothing other than informational cascade*. I've been testing slots over many years in more than 20 online casinos. Hundreds of millions spins in many slots, and the number of factors became a starting point for reflection and consequently for creation of my own hypothesis.
*Informational cascade — is a self-reinforcing process where collective faith becomes more convincing due to increasing repetition in public discourse (Repeat something for a significantly long time, and finally it will become truth).
I bet that most of those who play slots regularly (let’s say NetEnt - the most popular developer) faced a deja vu when the same slot in different casinos acted identically for long game sessions, but not during 10-15 spins until the first bonus game appears. And it’s not about that a slot doesn’t pay and naturally it’s not about the slot showing the same set of images. It is about, for example, the fact that Drive Multiplier Mayhem gives the specific number (15 exactly) of combinations where scatter symbols are shown on the 2nd and 3rd reels with a spin of the fourth reel and an attempt to get the 3rd to scatter there. Then a slot gives a bonus game with a small win and right after that, a bonus game with all “nitro” collected for the max level game appear.
I can give the same examples for dozens of slots. For example, identical behaviour was evidenced in Scruffy Duck slot, certain patterns in the Secret of Christmas, Copy Cats, and many others. The most obvious manifestation of scenarios in NetEnt slots I've evidenced in Space Wars, which can become a separate thread for discussion. I've seen such "recurring" scenarios not only in NetEnt slots, but I've noticed them among game providers such as Microgaming, Yggdrasil, Amatic, Endorphina, and Red Tiger. Of course, observation of such identical game sessions is only possible by playing in prolonged game sessions in different online casinos. And here comes the question: does random and RNG actually exist at all like it is claimed?
Most players, for example, faced the notion “slot is on its pay streak”, especially when someone in the internet or streamers win a lot and all people aspire to play the same slot keeping in mind that a slot is on its pay streak right at the moment. And now let’s recall your game sessions in such cases. I’m sure most of you have got the situation when you open two browsers, different casinos, equal bet amount, and then you see quite a different exposure. In the first casino, your balance is totally set to zero without any bonus game during 500 spins in a row, and the other casino's result is fully opposite.
Slots by Red Tiger (not only) can show more interesting results. A player receives free spins, and then when a player is offered three sectors to choose from (after choosing one a player sees the exact number of free spins) even before the choice is made the slot already shows player’s balance with a win amount taken into account. This fact shows that player’s choice doesn’t change the outcome at all, and in fact, any sector can be chosen, as the slot has already made a “decision” about the number of spins, combinations set, and the amount of win to be paid respectively.
The above mentioned facts and many other things that will be discussed below gave me some sort of idea, and maybe a hypothesis, the hypothesis of a fundamentally different slots' configuration. According to my observation, slots' configurations boils down to this; when a slot is on a development stage, Artificial Intelligence creates game sequences of hundreds of millions of game combinations, i.e., peculiar rows with certain distances for winning and losing sessions. (Pic. 1):
Concerning RTP, many so-called "advisors" tell us to play high RTP slots, and there are many reviews and ratings for such slots. Is high RTP value so crucial for the player?
In my personal opinion that it is far from the truth and it’s not more than an illusory correlation*!
For a certain player's game session, the difference between a slot with 98% and 96% RTP will NEVER be palpable. It's because RTP values are being aligned for millions or even billions spins distances. That's the reason I was never interested in the RTP value of the slot, and I'm only interested in the slot's dispersion level. This criterion is more important for any player as it can help to forecast game session expectations. More than that, RTP value is not actually even for online casino owners as it is calculated based on all casinos from the network, and it can be higher for one single casino and lower for the other one, respectively. This criterion was actually only for land-based casino owners where a certain slot "aligned" the value and what is more for a rather short distance. Infact, this index for the online segment can only be interesting for the software developer, namely a game provider.
*Illusory correlation is a phenomenon of exaggeratedly close relations of variables, which in fact does not exist at all or significantly lower than was supposed.
Let’s get back to the game intervals topic. So, from my point of view, while opening a slot for the first time a system “places” a player into a certain interval. Pic 2:
As it is displayed in the chart every player is randomly placed into a certain place of the lane, i.e. it is a certain interval of the lane which is player’s starting point, and then he will strictly follow it. Some players can be placed into the beginning of the positive interval, some players will be placed in the middle of the end of the interval. Some players similarly will be placed on the lane but for a negative interval. In my view, a player won’t randomly jump over the lane during further gameplay. A player will get into the same lane during his second/third and fourth slot sessions, and he will be put into the same point of the lane where he finished his previous game sessions.
If you follow this hypothesis, it turns out that, after moving through the entire positive interval, a player will get into a negative one and he will lose consequently. And many people would say that they won and, for example, won again after a come back in a week or so. Maybe that’s the original source for “set to zero” at the beginning of the moth theory followers. I suppose that the case is completely different. The core is that players are unable to recognize endings of the intervals. I’ll give an example of my vision for such intervals on the Display 3. (win amounts are arbitrary):
As can be seen from the chart, there is a sequence of combinations which have certain sets of winning combinations with different intervals between them. Most players immediately leave a slot right after a big win, and in fact, there could be another win just after the previous one. It means that when a player enters a slot over a while, he gets into the same place of the lane where he finished his previous game session, and a big win comes just after several spins. It is exactly the case that makes the feeling of the slot "paying form a single spin" and the feeling that a slot was "reset to zero" and it is on its "pay streak". But in fact, a player simply follows his own scripted lane. It is really hard to track a negative interval as naturally big wins appear from time to time, but for a long distance, a player will anyway lose.
Of course, such a hypothesis generates many questions. I'll try to consider some of them below. All my reasonings will be based on the above hypothesis.
Does RTP exist at all?
You know, I’m convinced that RTP value really exists, but it exists only within a script formation stage. Later on, the RTP value is not compliant with the original value. The game provider can always say something like “You try to observe a significantly short interval, but in future RTP value will be aligned”. All say that RTP is aligned within a long distance, but no one says what “long-distance” exactly is. As a result, the RTP value notion can be manipulated. Many will say that such companies like ECOGRA do really check. And do you believe the results they deliver? In times of total corruption, I would doubt the credibility of the information.
How does bet amount affect the game/ How does RTP is aligned?
Naturally, when the script is being created, a developer is not able to forecast the bet amount of a potential future player. In my view, it doesn't affect the outcome. A slot will behave the same way for any bet amount. If someone wins by placing a big bet, a developer will align RTP value by placing players into negative intervals predominantly.
How are slots with high dispersion designed?
The same way as slots with low dispersion. I’m convinced that any player can get a mega win in several thousand bets that are scattered on “the way”. The only question is that a system will place some players closer to a win (that’s the reason some players get a huge win in several spins) and some people will be placed farther. And in order to hit a huge win, players that placed farther will have to pass the way of thousands or even dozens of thousands of spins. On picture 4 we took examples of x1000, x2000 and x4000 mega big winnings:
Do positive and negative players’ accounts exist?
In my opinion, in the form, they are imagined. Some accounts are mainly placed into "positive intervals". So players will have positive results at first, but if a player doesn't stop the game, his result will be quite different. In the same way, the system can place a player's account into "negative intervals" for some slots. And the result here will be dependant on the player's choice, i.e. whether a player opens these slots or not. During tests, I repeatedly managed to get to the "plus" accounts.
Is a mobile slot version is the same as a PC one?
Although many people assure that a slot's mobile version is the same as a PC one, I can say with a lot of confidence that it's not true. PC slots and mobile slots are different. I mean that if you are placed into a certain point of the interval in a PC slot, you'll get a completely different point of the interval in a mobile version of the slot. That's why if a slot shows positive results on a PC version, it doesn't mean at all that the slot will behave the same on mobile. But there is a definite positive point. I've managed to get even a series of winning combinations on PC during tests. When a slot stopped to pay out at all as it has entered a negative interval, I've managed to hop into a positive interval with several series of big wins by switching to the mobile slot.
Demo game, is it really possible to check the slot for payout in it?
Many people try to convince us that it is the truth that demo-mode slots act the same way as during the game for real money. Adherents of this hypothesis tend to think so about NetEnt slots. I stick to a different point of view. Taking into account the described hypothesis, I think that a system predominantly places a player into positive intervals and only occasionally into negative ones. The game provider needs to show a player all the opportunities of the slot and lure a player into the game. Indeed, if the idea that the slots in the demo mode play in the same way as for real money is put into the minds of potential players, and at the same time in 80% of cases they are put in plus segments, then there will be much more people who want to play. Players are put into negative intervals only in order not to resonate in gambling society. Because if it is widely believed that slots in the demo mode always play a plus, then much fewer people will believe that they also play for real money and want to continue playing on it.
Do players’ classes exist?
Possibly yes, but I'm not sure. And what is more, I'm not sure that players' classes somehow affect the gameplay. It can be only one of the factors that are taken into account by the system when placing a player into further slots (after the analysis of previous game sessions).
Does the slot’s pool exist?
Undoubtedly. But at the same time, most people are convinced that slot’s pool is fixed for a particular casino. While testing slots behaviour in completely different gambling establishments, I’ve concluded that most likely slot’s pool is common for all casinos (i.e. is fixed on game provider servers) More than that I think that slot’s pool doesn’t affect a particular player. It’s just one more component as like as RTP which helps RNG work properly.
Where and how is the RNG applied, and is it applied at all?
Certainly, RNG exists, and as I’ve written above, it is used during the development of the scenario at least. Moreover, I believe that RNG forms only a distance at this stage, i.e. when a bonus game should be issued, when a specific interval should start or end and general slot’s behaviour by fixing win amounts (in arbitrary units - X bets) at the same time. Further, RNG interferes gameplay by correcting it. For example, how much winnings should be paid out in the planned bonus game, taking into account players class, slots pull, etc?
One more example: while placing 2-5 euro bets, the scenario planned to win 1000 bets, but taking into account the real bet of the player, slot pool, RTP, class, etc., the RNG can adjust the winnings within 700-1300 bets.
Is gameplay fair in an online casino?
In my opinion, it's far from the truth. If we stick to the hypothesis, playing online casino is similar to a shooter game. Despite all the gaming "environment" (barriers, enemies), a player moves through the "corridor" with a predictable outcome. Moreover, I believe that for casinos themselves, this game can hardly be called fair, as by correct usage of this hypothesis and applying a little analytics, you can predict the outcome of the sessions and abuse the game.
*Shooter — computer games genre.
Can I win at an online casino?
Yes, you can! It is possible if you stop playing disorderly, and learn how to analyze gameplay, forecast the ends of positive intervals. I try to use the "not returning strategy the slot that paid out a large win or a series of wins", because then a minus interval will follow. The best option, I think, is to "go through" all slots (or most popular ones that you like), and then leave a casino and continue playing on these slots, but in another casino.
All this information is for informational purposes only and is nothing more than a personal opinion and reasoning of the author. This information is by no means an accusation anyone of anything, nor does it call or induce any actions.
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