- Written by Vladislav Dibrov
How to get a positive mathematical expectation at an Australian online casino?
Punters have a real opportunity to get a positive mathematical expectation of winning in an Australian online casino. The player can get it entirely legally - without violating any of the casino's rules. He should use bonuses for this. The usage of the current strategy is one of the reasons for high wagering requirements on all bonus money and appearing such points in casino's terms and conditions as "if a punter using the bonuses to get an advantage, we shall exclude him from the bonus promotions". Read the information on the possibility of winning in the online casino on the following page:
Getting a positive mathematical expectation of winning
In short words: you should play only at pokies with the RTP (return to player percentage) of 97% and higher, with bonuses that have wagering requirements below 40x. Using this strategy punter still has chances for a big win if he will be lucky. But statistically, he is getting the positive mathematical expectation of winning from the online casino's side.
At the moment some Australian online casinos exclude the most profitable pokies from the list, in which you can complete bonus wagering requirements. Some casinos go further and add such a point in their TC (terms and conditions) that they can exclude players from promotions if they are winning with their help.
The mathematical expectation of winning in all casino games is negative for punters. Even if the luck smiled at the player and he won a large sum, by increasing time, games, spins, aligns the statistics with the medium values, which ultimately leads to a loss. Is there any reason to play at all?
Choosing a suitable offer
Let's suppose that the punter will deposit in Royal Panda casino to get a welcome bonus offer. Depositing A$100 on balance and grabbing a bonus of A$100. The wagering requirements for this offer is 35x (of the bonus amount). Therefore, the player needs to make bets (rollover) on A$3500 (A$100 x 35). Until wagering requirements are not completed, the punter cannot order any cashout.
Let's take a look at some pokies. Look at the table. The percentages in the column next to the pokie's name, mean the RTP (return to player percentage). For example, if RTP is 96%, it means that from every A$100 wagered, players will win A$96 back. In some providers, the percentage of payout range is large. It ranges from 90 to 99%. Now let's calculate what wagering requirements should be to get the positive mathematical expectation of winning.
The calculation for 35x wagering requirements
Since we have A$100 of bonus money, we need to make bets on A$3500. Which of the pokies will give the player zero mathematical expectation of winning? The one in which we will (statistically) lose A$100 during wagering of A$3500. This value corresponds with 2.86% (100/3500 = 2.86 + 97.14 = 0). Therefore, all games with an RTP of more than 97.14% give us a positive mathematical expectation of winning in an online casino with some wagering requirements of 35x on the bonus.
The list of best pokies for 35x wagering
|Logo||Pokie||RTP||Wagering rating||The probability of triggering the bonus feature||Fund allocation |
main / bonus
|Dispersion of winning||Winning per A$100 wagered|
|Blood Suckers||98%||6.4||0.5%/ 2.1%||52% / 12,1% / 13% / 20,1%||4.16||0.86|
|Kings of Chicago||97.8%||3.5||0.94%||70% / 17,6% / 10.3%||8.64||0.66|
|Devils Delight||97.6%||5.63||8.31%||92% / 8%||7.92||0.46|
|Sim Salabim||97.5%||6.61||0.27% / 1,87%||68,8% / 15,9% |
|Jack Hammer||97%||6.09||0.55%||77,3% / 19,7%||4.1||- 0.14|
- The higher RTP of the pokie is, the higher the statistical percentage of winning will be at the punter's side. For example, for every A$100 wagered at the Mega Joker pokie (RTP 99%) winning will be A$1.86. If it is the Blood Suckers (RTP 98%), the winning will be A$0.86.
- But 97% RTP of Jack Hammer pokie is not enough. Player will lose 14 cents for every A$100 wagered, even playing with the generous bonus wagering (35x). Our mathematical expectation still will be negative. To play Jack Hammer pokie with positive expectation, you must have at least a bonus with 33x wagering
Our mathematical advantage over an online casino will only work during an active bonus with wagering of 35x. As soon as wagering requirements are completed, your expected return back to negative.
For wagering 40x requirements, the requirements calculation will change
Now let's analyse the mathematical expectation of winning with the wagering 40x. On our account is A$200, including half of them, are bonus money. We spent our own money A$100, and we need to put A$4000 as wagering requirements. In this case, we are interested in pokies, with an RTP of more than 97.5%. In this case, the list will be the following:
|Logo||Pokie||RTP (return to player percentage)||Winning per A$100 wagered|
|Kings of Chicago||97.8%||0.3|
- Mega Joker with 99% RTP. The punter will (statistically) win A$1.5 for every A$100 wagered.
- Jackpot 6000 - 98.86%. The winning is 1.36 A$ for every A$100 wagered (97.5 deducted from 98.86).
- Blood Suckers pokie with 98% RTP. The winning will be A$0.5 per A$100.
- Kings of Chicago pokie with 97.8% RTP. The winning is A$0.3 per every hundred.
It means that we can get a positive expectation of winning with 40x wagering requirements, but our revenue will be twice lower.
We use promo-actions
So, let's get to the essence of the question. Leave the theory and turn only to the facts and figures. Where and how can we apply our strategy?
- The best welcome bonus offer is 100% up to A$100 with a 35x wagering — for example, Royal Panda casino.
- Some partner Australian casinos offer their players bonus packages for 3-5 deposits. In addition to this, operators periodically send personal repeated (reload) bonuses.
- The most popular Australian online casinos Betchan and Bitstarz casinos offer players bonuses with a wagering 40x.
Not all pokies are available for wagering
Not all pokies are allowed to complete wagering requirements. Usually, only bets in pokies are counted as 100%. Table and live games are excluded. Last year more and more online casinos adding pokies with high volatility to the list of pokies that are excluded from the wagering.
In other words, if bonus hunters have the technical ability to create a lot of new accounts, get bonuses on them and fill all this money into one pokie with high volatility, then at some stage, by inflating the prize money, they will get a significant win on the last account. For the pokie, there is no difference if the bonus money or the real money were lost. Therefore, the total amount of the loss will be considered into account in one very big winning.
Why is the maximum stake limited?
The restriction can vary from A$5 to A$15 as a maximum bet per single spin. This restriction is not always implemented technically. You can make a bet in any size, but in case of a big win your payout will be rejected and winnings will be void refer to this condition.
Restrictions on countries
You probably noticed that some casinos exclude complete countries from the bonus promotions. As a rule, these are Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, China. Why are these countries not allowed to the programs? The answer is simple:
Punters from these countries win money in online casinos with the help of bonuses.
Everything is about countries and the standard of living. Players from some countries are okay to spend a few days to win A$50 - A$100. If the percentage of punters from a particular country exceeds a certain amount - the country is excluded from all bonus offers.
The proposed system is so effective that online casinos have to exclude entire countries. If casinos had simpler ways of influencing lucky players or other ways of suppressing regular winning, they would have used them long ago. The complete ban on receiving bonuses in individual countries is the recognition of one's defeat.
If you want to get more information about winning strategies, tricks and learn the hidden data of pokies, visit the following page:
Combine the proposed winning strategies with knowledge of the positive mathematical expectation of winning in the online casino. This will move your game to a new level!
To summarise, I want to highlight the main aspects and answer the question: "How to get a positive expectation of winning in an Australian online casino?"
- Bonuses with wagering requirements 35x allow a player to obtain a positive mathematical expectation of winning in pokies with an RTP of more than is 97.14%.
- Bonus offers with 40x wagering requirements will be profitable with an RTP of 97.5%. These figures fit only a few of the pokies: Jackpot 6000, Blood Suckers and Kings of Chicago.
- Reload bonuses and personal offers with reduced wagering requirements are ideally suited for maximising mathematical expectation.
- Using the news section, you will always know about the schedule of the closest bonuses and promotions in the best Australian online casinos.
Where to play?
- Fastpay casino is one of the best on our list with no-hassle withdraws, VIP bonus program and professional chat support, we trust them 100%.