Last Updated: Tuesday, 19 December 2023 10:37

How to get a positive mathematical expectation in an online casino?

How to get a positive mathematical expectation in Netent online casino
Let's see the possibility of winning in online casino slots using mathematics and statistics. In my opinion, Netent software at the moment is at the peak of popularity, and many players are looking for additional information about how to increase chances to hit a big win. Bonus hunting strategy is based on this model. You can read more about it by clicking on the link below:

Players have a real opportunity to get a positive mathematical expectation of winning in the online casino. The player can get it legally - without violating any of the casino's rules. You should use bonuses for this. The usage of the current strategy is one of the reasons for high wagering requirements on all bonus money and appearing such points in casino's terms and conditions as "if a player using the bonuses to get an advantage, we shall exclude him from the bonus promotions". Read the information on the possibility of winning in the online casino on the following page:

Getting a positive mathematical expectation of winning

In short words: you should play only at slot machines with the RTP (return to player percentage) of 97% and higher, with bonuses which have wagering requirements below 40x. Using this strategy player still has chances for a big win if he will be lucky. But statistically, he is getting the positive mathematical expectation of winning from online casino's side.

At the moment, some online casinos exclude the most profitable slot machines from the list, in which you can complete bonus wagering requirements. Some casinos go further and add such point in their TC (terms and conditions) that they can exclude players from promotions if they are winning with their help.

Statistical data

The mathematical expectation of winning in all casino games is negative for players even if luck smiled to the player and he won a large sum. As time goes by, games and spins align the statistics with the average values, which ultimately leads to a loss. Is there any reason to play at all?

Choosing a suitable offer

Let's suppose that the player will deposit in online casino to get a welcome bonus offer. Depositing €100 on balance and grabbing a bonus of €100. The wagering requirements for this offer is 35x (of the bonus amount). Therefore, the player needs to make bets (rollover) on €3500 (€100 x 35). Until wagering requirements are not completed, the player cannot order any cashout.

Game selection

Let's take a look at all casino games. Look at the table. The percentages in the column next to the slot's name, mean the RTP (return to player percentage). For example, if RTP is 96%, it means that from every €100 wagered, players will win €96 back. In the online slots, the percentage of payout range is large. It ranges from 90 to 99%. Now let's calculate what wagering requirements should be to get the positive mathematical expectation of winning.

The calculation for 35x wagering requirements

Since we have €100 of bonus money, we need to make bets on €3500. Which slots will give the player zero mathematical expectation of winning? The one in which we will (statistically) lose €100 with during wagering of €3500. This value corresponds with 2.86% (100/35x wagering = 2.86 + 97.14 = 0). Therefore, all games with RTP more than is 97.14% give us a positive mathematical expectation of winning in online casino with some wagering requirements of 35x on the bonus.

The list of best games for 35x wagering

Logo Game RTP Wagering rating The probability of triggering the bonus feature Fund allocation
main / bonus
Dispersion of winning Winning per €100 wagered How to win
Mega joker
Mega Joker 99% 2.4 - 100% 7.98 1.75 How to win
Jackpot 6000
Jackpot 6000 98.86% 2.7 - 100% 5.24 1.72 How to win
Blood suckers
Blood Suckers 98% 6.4 0.5%/ 2.1% 52% / 12,1% / 13% / 20,1% 4.16 0.86 How to win
Kings of Chicago
Kings of Chicago 97.8% 3.5 0.94% 70% / 17,6% / 10.3% 8.64 0.66 How to win
Devils delight
Devils Delight 97.6% 5.63 8.31% 92% / 8% 7.92 0.46 How to win
SimSalabim 97.5% 6.61 0.27% / 1,87% 68,8% / 15,9%
/ 12,8%
4.1 0.36 How to win
Jack hammer
Jack Hammer 97% 6.09 0.55% 77,3% / 19,7% 4.1 - 0.14 How to win
  • The higher RTP of the slot is, the higher statistical percentage of winning will be at the player's side. For example, for every €100 wagered at the Mega Joker slot (RTP 99%) winning will be €1.86. If it is the Blood Suckers slot (RTP 98%), the winning will be €0.86. 
  • But 97% RTP of Jack Hammer slot is not enough. Player will lose 14 cents for every €100 wagered, even playing with the generous bonus wagering (35x). Our mathematical expectation still will be negative. To play Jack Hammer slot machine with positive expectation, you must have at least bonus with 33x wagering

Our mathematical advantage over an online casino will only work during an active bonus with wagering of 35x. As soon as wagering requirements are completed, your expected return back to negative.

For wagering 40x requirements, the requirements calculation will change

Now let's analyse the mathematical expectation of winning with the wagering 40x. On our account is €200, including half of them, are bonus money. We spent our money €100, and we need to put €4000 as wagering requirements. In this case, we are interested in games, with the RTP of more than 97.5%. In this case, the list of games will be the following:

Logo Game RTP (return to player percentage) Winning per €100 wagered
Mega joker
Mega Joker 99% 1.5
Jackpot 6000
Jackpot 6000 98.86% 1.36
Blood suckers
Blood Suckers 98% 0.5
Kings of Chicago
Kings of Chicago 97.8% 0.3
  • Mega Joker with 99% RTP. Player will (statistically) win €1.5 for every €100 wagered.
  • Jackpot 6000 - 98.86%. The winning is 1.36 € for every €100 wagered (97.5 deducted from 98.86).
  • Blood Suckers slot with 98% RTP. The winning will be €0.5 per €100.
  • Kings of Chicago slot with 97.8% RTP. The winning is €0.3 per every hundred.

It means that we can get a positive expectation of winning with 40x wagering requirements, but our revenue will be twice lower.

We use promo-actions

So, let's get to the essence of the question. Leave the theory and turn only to the facts and figures. Where and how can we apply our strategy?

  • The best welcome bonus offer is 100% up to €100 with a 35x wagering — for example, Royal Panda casino.
  • Some partner casinos offer their players bonus packages for 3-5 deposits. In addition to this, operators periodically send personal repeated (reload) bonuses.
  • Some of the most popular operators Betchan and Bitstarz casinos offer players bonuses with a wagering 40x.

Not all games are available for wagering

Not all games are allowed to complete wagering requirements. Usually, only bets in slots are counted as 100%. Table and live games are excluded. Last year, more and more online casinos added slots with high volatility to the list of games that are excluded from the wagering.

In other words, if bonus hunters have the technical ability to create a lot of new accounts, get bonuses on them and fill all this money into one slot with high volatility. At some stage, by inflating the prize money, they will get a significant win on the last account. For a slot machine, there is no difference if the bonus money or the real money were lost. Therefore, the total amount of the loss will be considered into account in one huge winning. 

Why is the maximum stake limited?

Blood suckers video slot
All casinos are afraid of players who win money. Even more, they are scared of players who do this always and without violating the terms. That's why they restrict the maximum stake that can be used while completing the wagering requirements. 

The restriction can vary from €5 to €15 as a maximum bet per single spin. This restriction is not always implemented technically. You can make a stake in any size, but in case of a big win your payout will be rejected and winnings will be void refer to this condition.

Restrictions on countries

You probably noticed that some casinos exclude some countries from the bonus promotions. As a rule, these are Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, China. Why are these countries not allowed to the programs? The answer is simple:

Players from these countries win money in online casinos with the help of bonuses. 

Everything is about countries and the standard of living. Players from some countries are okay to spend a few days to win €50 - €100. If the percentage of players from a particular country exceeds a certain amount - the country is excluded from all bonus offers.

The system is so effective that online casinos have to exclude select countries. If casinos had simpler ways of influencing lucky players or other ways of suppressing regular winning, they would have used them long ago. The complete ban on receiving bonuses in individual countries is the recognition of one's defeat.


If you want to get more information about winning strategies, tricks and learn the hidden data of slots, visit the following page:

Combine the proposed winning strategies with knowledge of the positive mathematical expectation of winning in the online casino. This will move your game to the new level!


Summarising, I want to highlight the main aspects and answer the question: "How to get a positive expectation of winning in an online casino?"

  • Bonuses with wagering requirements 35x allow a player to obtain a positive mathematical expectation of winning in games with RTP of more than is 97.14%.
  • Bonus offers with a 40x wagering requirements will be profitable with an RTP of 97.5%. These figures fit only a few the slots: Jackpot 6000, Blood Suckers and Kings of Chicago.
  • Reload bonuses and personal offers with reduced wagering requirements are ideally suited for maximising mathematical expectation.
  • Using the news section, you will always know about the schedule of the closest bonuses and promotions in the best casinos.

Where to play?

  • Fastpay casino pays money to payment systems and bank cards within a few minutes.

Play the best online casinos for money in 2024

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Written by Vladislav Dibrov
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